Abstract:Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and quantitative prediction of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) in Ninghua County, Fujian Province. Methods The data HFMD in Ninghua country, 2010-2015, were collected from the infectious diseases reporting information system in the information management system of disease prevention and control of China, and the population data from "Ninghua County Statistical Yearbook". Results A total of 2350 cases was reported in Ninghua County, 2010-2015, with 1 cases death, and the average incidence was 107.98/105. The highest incidence rate was 240.16/105, in 2014. The incidence rate of each year (more than 100.00/105 or greater than 200.00/105) of the township is not consistent, but mainly distributed in the Quanshang, Hucun, Cuijiang and other places. In 2012, the incidence of Moran’s I was 0.429, P值<0.05, and suggested that the incidence of the disease was aggregated distribution in 2012, and there was a high or low value. Local auto correlation analysis showed that there were high incidence in 2012 and 2014, the former towns were Anyuan, Helong and Shuixi, and the latter was Helong. Spatial and temporal scanning showed that the maximum possible aggregation area covering 3 towns, mainly in the urban and suburban areas: Cuijiang, Chengjiao and Chengnan, the gathering time for the late March (RR=34.02,LLR= 137.45, P<0.001). SARIMA (4,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was the best prediction model, the retrospective prediction of RMSE, MAE and MAPE were 32.18%, 15.51 and 49.60% respectively. Conclusions HFMD cases showed aggregated distribution: Cuijiang, Chengjiao, Chengnan, Helong, Shuixi etc. Quanshang, Hucun, Cuijiang, etc were high incidence area, the relevant departments should pay attention to, and combined with the quantitative prediction value, take timely and targeted prevention and control measures to reduce the risk of an outbreak of HFMD.